Netbooks Impacting the Mainstream Market

Joe Wilcox, editor of Microsoft Watch, has put together an in-depth article about the impact netbooks are having on the traditional, or mainstream, laptop/notebook market.

Netbooks are cannibalizing the low-end part of the market and driving some margins down (in the so-called “race to the bottom”). Just how much they are is up for debate - I think once we’ve seen another quarter or two, and factor in the MSI Wind U100 and Acer Aspire One launch during the first half of last year, then we’ll have a better idea on just what kind of impact they are having. eWeek considers this a huge problem for the overall PC market, and they believe the Microsoft must be a part of anything that addresses this. They mention the first quarter 2009 shipment information that was just released by both Gartner and IDC, and PC shipments declined by 6.5 percent over this time last year, while netbooks/sub-notebooks sales were strong. I think some of that is being alarmist - even if netbooks didn’t exist, shipments would probably still be down. Companies are cutting back, and within the last few years, laptops have reached a point as far as cost versus computing power, where the benefits of upgrading fairly often for consumers has dropped substantially. It’s one thing if you are going from an old Celeron or Pentium 4-based laptop from 5 years ago to a Intel Core 2 Duo-based system, it’s another if you are already on a Core Duo or Core 2 Duo-based system. I think we’ve reached the point where people aren’t going to be compelled to upgrade as often. On top of that, you have Microsoft Windows 7 which is going to perform as well or better on existing systems that were sold with Vista (and it performs just fine on Intel Atom-based systems).

I think that it is a problem for manufacturers, but at the same time, the damage is done. It’s very clear that these devices are something that consumers are very interested in, and in many cases, they are being bought by people who may not already own a laptop for one reason or another. I can also see the fear that the NVIDIA Ion platform inspires in some - a low-end netbook/ultraportable, perhaps powered by an Intel Atom (or a VIA Nano), capable of HD graphics (even just 720p). That would absolutely impact the traditional 15″ (and now 17″) budget market. Netbooks with their current, outdated graphics systems, are already impacting the market - the demand was there, and the products to fill it simply didn’t exist, at least at a pricepoint that was affordable by mainstream consumers. As we go forward, you’ll find more people willing to forego the 15″ laptops for something in the 13″ and below range.
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NVIDIA Talks About the ION

NVIDIA has issued another press release about the ION platform, along with a few more details about launches, as well as commitments from software companies in regards to boosting/optimizing software for the ION platform.

Companies mentioned include Microsoft (no surprise), Electronic Arts, Adobe (Flash anyone?), and Google. Games and applications mentioned as benefitting from the Ion include Google Earth, Adobe Photoshop, Spore, Call of Duty 4, PowerDVD, and a few other games.

They’ve also posted a video discussing the ION, with select comments from interviews. Among those interviewed in the video, Corey Rosemond, Microsoft’s Windows Gaming Group Marketing Manager, along with others in the industry, with all involved putting an emphasis on the portability and low price point of the ION platform.

While I see the appeal of an NVIDIA ION ultraportable running a hardware-accelerated Photoshop CS4, I’m wondering if the limitations won’t be under the hood but rather what you see in front of you - Photoshop these days is not the best of experiences on a 1024×600 or 1024×576 display. There is a niche to be filled though, there are plenty of people who want that kind of functionality. The more interesting thing to me is High Definition video, along with 720p or 1080p output. It would be interesting to see an ION-powered ultraportable being used as a mobile HTPC.

Unfortunately we don’t get anything too specific, just that there will be some “incredibly small and affordable PCs” available sometime between now and the end of the quarter (June). Take it for what it is - the start of the marketing hype, but it’s a good sign of things to come.

Read: NVIDIA Press Release
(Video - 480p WMV)

NVIDIA to Take Stake in VIA?

There are several news stories floating around that NVIDIA could could be taking a take in VIA Technologies. The numbers mentioned are up to 300 million new shares, with a price of $0.27 - $0.35 USD per share, which is a substantial investment.

VIA confirmed that they have a shareholder meeting scheduled for June 19, 2009, at which time the potential buyers would be announced, while NVIDIA held off.

Back in January, NVIDIA’s CEO commented that NVIDIA would be supporting VIA’s Nano CPUs in a future revision of it’s Ion platform.

Read:
- DigiTimes
- TradingMarkets.com

Apple To Launch Touchscreen Netbook in 3Q 2009?

We’ll treat it as a rumor for now, but among the rumors, it’s a lot more solid than mos. DigiTimes is reporting on a Chinese-language Commercial Times publication that Wintek will be providing touch panels for a touchscreen netbook from Apple. There is a lot more going on that gives legitimacy to the idea of such a touch screen device from Apple.

The report states that shipments will begin in the third quarter of this year, which would put its availability (July/August/September) right around the end of the back-to-school buying season, with Quanta Computer being the main manufacturer of Apple’s netbooks.

At this point, I believe it’s a given that Apple will produce something with a 9-inch - 11-inch display. AT&T is about to start pushing netbooks for people who want something a little more than a smartphone, but who want mobile broadband access, and don’t want to lug a conventional-sized laptop/notebook around.

I think it’s very telling what Apple’s Tim Cook said back in January:
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Upcoming Apple Event? Plus Possible Netbook/iPhone News

A couple of smaller Apple/Mac-related sites are reporting that there will be an upcoming event held by Apple to introduce new products. They have received tips that it would be towards the end of March - Maybe March 24th.

Chances are it’s going to be desktop models (iMacs, Mac minis, and possibly Mac Pros), and it’s expected to happen soon based up many comments from various analysts and those with ties to Apple, as well as the upcoming OS X 10.5.7 update. It’s just a matter of when it will be formally announced.

With that said, a few weeks ago The Industry Standard reported on an analyst who met with Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s Chief Financial Officer (CFO), Phil Schiller, head of Apple’s marketing, and Tim Cook, Apple’s Chief Operating Officer (COO) who is currently filling in for CEO Steve Jobs.

Toni Sacconaghi who met with the Apple executives, mainly discussed upcoming iPhone plans, including new models and pricing.

However, he also said that Tim Cook hinted at “ideas” for a Mac netbook. The upcoming release of the NVIDIA Ion would fit nicely into Apple’s plans, since it might be used both in a new Mac mini and a Mac netbook. It shares a similar graphics chipset with the current MacBooks.

Read: The Industry Standard

Apple Event:
- My Apple Guide
- World of Apple
via Engadget

NVIDIA to Intel on the Ion: Where’s Your HD Now?

Recently, there’s been some heated rhetoric from Intel over the upcoming NVIDIA Ion platform. Intel made a lot of arguments (and the NetbookNews.it covers the Intel slides) against using the NVIDIA Ion platform, ranging from the age of the chipset to costs and performance.

NVIDIA has responded in kind, although it’s a more positive response - they are playing up their benefits and making it clear that these are

Some of NVIDIA’s points/rebuttals:
- Validation: Ion has been validated by OEMs and Microsoft, and products are now shipping
- Value: Endorsed by Microsoft, many developers, and the tech media
- Advantages: Ion is faster and offers a faster, more feature rich, better experience vs. Intel netbooks, nettops, and notebooks
- Performance vs battery life: 10X performance at similar battery life

On the issue of Intel saying that the window of opportunity for the Ion platform is short, NVIDIA responds:

Next gen Atom (Pineview) forces customers to use Intel graphics (with minor improvements). Coming Q4′09: Second-generation ION expands CPU support, performance, and features.

NVIDIA makes it clear that they feel that Atom/Pineview will not offer the performance people are going to be wanting, while at the same time, NVIDIA will be rolling out a second-generation Ion platform in that time period.

As we get more and more into HD-formatted content (TV/movies), and we move beyond “netbooks” as a simple way to access the internet, and we see more and more netbooks/ultraportables with HD-capable displays (such as future models of Dell’s Inspiron Mini 10), HD-capable chipsets/graphics will become important.

Read: NetbookNews.it (Italian)
via SlashGear

Intel and NVIDIA Ion - It’s Looking Ugly

Fudzilla is discussing a document released by Intel called “Nvidia Ion Competition Position Guide”, and it’s definitely not a good sign of things to come. Intel goes after the Ion platform.

As Fudzilla points out, some of the arguments don’t make much sense - Intel mentions that Ion is not a new chipset, and is instead derived from the MCP79M/NCP7A chipset family.

Let’s stop and think about this for a moment. Intel’s 945GSE/GM chipset is nearly 4 years old. At this time last year, we were still a few months away from Intel Atoms being widely available, and were still using older Intel Celerons (that probably predated the 945 chipset). From the beginning, these devices were based on older technologies in order to keep the costs down. As shocking as it may seem to some, the whole point of these devices was not to include the latest and greatest technologies - most of those would severely impact the battery life on these devices, given that the batteries are smaller.

Intel also argues that Ion will consume more power and add to the cost (or Bill of Material). So what? The Ion has been positioned from the beginning as being for people wanting better performance than what’s currently available and what will be available later this year (Intel’s GN40 chipset). I include myself in that group - I would gladly give up a little battery life for something that can spit out smooth HD video and that has a much better graphics chipset than anything we currently have. That does fall well outside of the range of what netbooks were originally meant for, but there shouldn’t be a problem with having offerings that are $50-$100 more, unless you are worried about it really eating into conventional low-end laptops powered by normal laptop CPUs (which I can see Intel being concerned about that).
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Lenovo to go With NVIDIA Ion, VIA, Launch 11″, 12″, and 13″ Netbooks?

For now we’re going to file it under rumors, but DigiTimes is reporting on an article in the Chinese-Language Commerical Times that Lenovo will be very busy in the netbook/ultraportable market as far as larger displays and non-Intel chipsets and even non-Intel CPUs..

They mention that Lenovo plans to launch 11.6-inch and 12.1-inch models based on the NVIDIA Ion platform which provides a huge boost to graphics processing and HD video playback. It will still be utilizing an Intel Atom CPU, and both devices would be manufactured by Winston. They are also reportedly looking at a 13-inch NVIDIA Ion device.

They are also saying that Lenovo would be launching a VIA-based 12-inch netbook, which would put them in direct competition with the Samsung NC20.

The target is the second quarter of 2009 for the 11.6″ and 12.1″ NVIDIA Ion-based devices. If that’s the case (and we need more information before saying it is), Lenovo would be joining Acer as far as known NVIDIA Ion customers.

Read: DigiTimes

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